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Prediction for CME (2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-05T10:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42425/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in real time to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2025-11-05T10:53Z. CME is also seen in GOES CCOR-1 as a halo with the bulk to the E. CME was missed by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in real time due to a scheduled gap between downlink periods. The CME is most likely associated with a long-duration M7.4 class flare from AR 14274 (N24E47) that peaked at 2025-11-05T11:19Z. The flare and associated eruption can be seen across GOES SUVI wavelengths but is best visible in GOES SUVI 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-07T04:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-08T02:59Z (-5.79h, +5.77h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2025/11/05 11:00Z
Plane of Sky 1: 14:00Z; 21Rsun; ENE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 16:20Z; 21Rsun; WSW Direction
POS Difference: 2:20
POS Midpoint: 15:10Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:10

Numeric View/Impact Type: -1
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~15.35
Travel Time: ~15.35 * 4:10 = 63:59

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-11-08T02:59Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/11/05 15:21Z
Lead Time: 35.22 hour(s)
Difference: -22.18 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-11-05T17:35Z
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